Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Yankees- Juan SotoBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Nestor CortesPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Verdugo homered to right center (420 feet), Judge scored.3–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–7
- 8Raleigh homered to right (361 feet), Crawford scored and Garver scored.3–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–5
- 6Soto homered to left (369 feet).0–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–5
- 3Soto homered to left center (414 feet), Volpe scored.0–4
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 30–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Judge homered to right (374 feet), Volpe scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 60%
- ML SEA +140 / NYY -165
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- NYY: Elo 55.9%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- NYY -149
- SEA +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.8 – 4.7 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | −2 | SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.90 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Nestor Cortes: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +42 Elo | NYY 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 56.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.87th of 30 |
| 8th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 3.31st of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.53rd of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 11th of 3012–12 | Road vs home | 16–85th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–25 | 27–23 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 12–15 | 15–18 |
| Underdog | 12–10 | 12–5 |
| Overs–unders | 19–28–2 | 22–27–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 4–4 NYY in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.