Seattle Mariners at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Dylan MooreBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- John MeansPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Hays scored on Bazardo wild pitch.2–9
- 7Hays scored on Bazardo wild pitch.2–9
- 7Hays doubled to center, Rutschman scored.2–8
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 32–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 22–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–7
- 7Rutschman doubled to right, Henderson scored.2–7
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–7
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging2–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 32–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 22–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 7Henderson tripled to left, Mateo scored.2–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 5Moore homered to left center (405 feet).2–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 32–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 1Westburg hit sacrifice fly to center, Santander scored.1–5
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–5
- 1Cowser doubled to right, O'Hearn scored and Mountcastle scored, Santander to third.1–4
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 1Mountcastle grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Rutschman scored on error, O'Hearn safe at second on throwing error by shortstop Moore, O'Hearn safe at third on error.1–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Henderson homered to center (402 feet).1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Garver singled to left, Moore scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 55%
- ML SEA +115 / BAL -135
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.0 pts
- BAL: Elo 57.3%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -124
- SEA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.0 – 4.5 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −1 | SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: John Means: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +51 Elo | BAL 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 3.89th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +1.25th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 18th of 309–10 | Road vs home | 15–97th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–23 | 23–18 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 12–15 | 15–17 |
| Underdog | 9–8 | 8–1 |
| Overs–unders | 15–27–2 | 21–18–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 2–4 BAL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.