Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Bo BichetteBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Orioles- Adley RutschmanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle BradishPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rutschman homered to right (347 feet), Westburg scored.2–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 3Bichette doubled to center, Guerrero Jr. scored and Springer scored.2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Westburg homered to right center (369 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 55%
- ML TOR +115 / BAL -135
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.0 pts
- BAL: Elo 60.3%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -124
- TOR +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.0 – 3.5 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +7 | TOR: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Kyle Bradish: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +72 Elo | BAL 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.89th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.1 | Margin | +1.26th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3010–13 | Road vs home | 14–98th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–22 | 23–17 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–11 | 15–16 |
| Underdog | 8–11 | 8–1 |
| Overs–unders | 17–23–1 | 21–17–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 4–10 BAL in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 14.