Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Daulton VarshoBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Orioles- Adley RutschmanBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Corbin BurnesPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 10Varsho grounded out to second, Biggio scored, Clement to second.3–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 8Varsho homered to right (408 feet).2–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 6Rutschman homered to right (372 feet).1–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 6Vogelbach singled to center, Guerrero Jr. scored, Bichette to second.1–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Rutschman homered to right center (425 feet).0–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 62%
- ML TOR +155 / BAL -185
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- BAL: Elo 58.4%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -166
- TOR +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.2 – 4.3 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +4 | TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +59 Elo | BAL 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 58.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 58.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 5.13rd of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.89th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.2 | Margin | +1.34th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 24th of 309–13 | Road vs home | 14–88th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–22 | 23–16 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–11 | 15–15 |
| Underdog | 7–11 | 8–1 |
| Overs–unders | 17–22–1 | 21–16–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 3–10 BAL in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 13.