Kansas City Royals at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Adam FrazierBatting2-4
- Alec MarshPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Mariners- Ty FranceBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Raley singled to right, Rivas scored, Raley out stretching at second.2–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 8Witt Jr. grounded out to second, Fermin scored.2–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 7Rojas singled to left, Canzone scored.1–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Witt Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Fermin scored, Isbel to third.1–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 30–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 4France homered to left center (414 feet).0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Urías grounded into fielder's choice to third, Raleigh scored, Moore to second, Raley safe at third on fielding error by third baseman Frazier.0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 57%
- ML KC +125 / SEA -145
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- SEA: Elo 59.5%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- SEA -133
- KC +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.4 – 4.1 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +6 | KC: Alec Marsh: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +67 Elo | SEA 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 57.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 3.824th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 3.67th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+1.1 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 13th of 3011–10 | Road vs home | 14–109th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–17 | 20–23 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–9 | 11–15 |
| Underdog | 19–8 | 9–8 |
| Overs–unders | 17–26–1 | 15–26–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 2–7 SEA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.