Kansas City Royals at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Nelson VelazquezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Mariners- Mitch HanigerBatting3-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Haniger homered to right (356 feet).4–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 24–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 8Garcia singled to left, Renfroe scored.4–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 7Velázquez homered to left center (398 feet), Witt Jr. scored and Perez scored.3–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 4Raley homered to right (361 feet).0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 58%
- ML KC +130 / SEA -150
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.6 pts
- SEA: Elo 60.5%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- SEA -138
- KC +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.4 – 4.1 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +3 | KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +74 Elo | SEA 60.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 58.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.923rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 3.67th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +0.213th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 15th of 3010–10 | Road vs home | 14–98th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–17 | 20–22 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–9 | 11–14 |
| Underdog | 18–8 | 9–8 |
| Overs–unders | 17–25–1 | 15–25–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 1–7 SEA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.