Kansas City Royals at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Michael MasseyBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Mariners- Luke RaleyBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- George KirbyPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8France homered to left (379 feet), Raley scored.2–6
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 32–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 8Massey doubled to center, Pasquantino scored and Witt Jr. scored.2–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 3Raley singled to right, Polanco scored, Raleigh to second.0–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–3
- 3Raleigh singled to center, Rodríguez scored, Polanco to second.0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 2Raley homered to center (432 feet), Raleigh scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 58%
- ML KC +130 / SEA -150
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- SEA: Elo 57.9%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- SEA -138
- KC +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 2.9 – 3.6 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | 0 | KC: Brady Singer: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +55 Elo | SEA 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 58.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.824th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 3.77th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+1.2 | Margin | +0.115th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 14th of 3010–9 | Road vs home | 13–99th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–16 | 19–22 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–9 | 10–14 |
| Underdog | 18–7 | 9–8 |
| Overs–unders | 16–25–1 | 14–25–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 1–6 SEA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.