Seattle Mariners at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Luis UriasBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- George KirbyPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Corbin BurnesPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 8Mullins singled to right, Cowser scored, Hays to second.3–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 7Rodríguez singled to left, Urías scored.3–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–5
- 7Urías doubled to left, Moore scored.2–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–5
- 3Mullins singled to right, Cowser scored.1–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–5
- 3O'Hearn homered to right center (399 feet).1–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–4
- 2McCann doubled to right, Mateo scored.1–3
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 31–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 21–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 11–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 2Urías singled to left, Raley scored, Moore to second.1–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 1Cowser reached on infield single to second, Westburg scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Henderson homered to center (422 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 57%
- ML SEA +125 / BAL -150
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- BAL: Elo 56.4%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- BAL -135
- SEA +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.9 – 3.6 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +3 | SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +45 Elo | BAL 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 58.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 3.78th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.34th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 17th of 3010–11 | Road vs home | 16–108th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–24 | 24–19 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 12–15 | 16–18 |
| Underdog | 10–9 | 8–1 |
| Overs–unders | 16–28–2 | 22–19–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 3–5 BAL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.