Seattle Mariners at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Dylan MooreBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Grayson RodriguezPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Henderson homered to left center (410 feet).4–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 34–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 24–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 8Moore doubled to left, Raleigh scored.4–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 8Raleigh doubled to left, Rodríguez scored.3–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 7France doubled to right, Moore scored.2–2
- 7Pitch 12 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 11 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 7Pitch 10 : Ball 31–2
- 7Pitch 9 : Ball 21–2
- 7Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 11–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 7Haniger grounded out to third, Raley scored.1–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 30–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 3O'Hearn singled to center, Mateo scored, Henderson to second.0–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 2Hays hit sacrifice fly to center, Westburg scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 55%
- ML SEA +115 / BAL -135
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- BAL: Elo 55.5%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -124
- SEA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.5 – 4.0 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −3 | SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Grayson Rodriguez: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +38 Elo | BAL 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 3.78th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.34th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 309–11 | Road vs home | 16–97th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–24 | 24–18 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 12–15 | 16–17 |
| Underdog | 9–9 | 8–1 |
| Overs–unders | 16–27–2 | 22–18–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 2–5 BAL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.