Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Dominic CanzoneBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Yankees- Alex VerdugoBatting3-5, 3 RBI
- Marcus StromanPitching7.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9France singled to right, Haniger scored, Moore to second.5–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 24–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 9Canzone hit sacrifice fly to right, Raley scored, Haniger to third.4–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–4
- 9Haniger singled to center, Raleigh scored, Raley to third.3–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 9Raley reached on infield single to second, Rodríguez scored on throwing error by second baseman Torres, Raley to second, Raleigh safe at third on error.2–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 8Berti singled to left, Torres scored.1–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 8Canzone homered to center (426 feet).1–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Verdugo singled to center, Soto scored, Judge to second, Judge safe at third on fielding error by center fielder Rodríguez.0–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Verdugo doubled to right, Judge scored and Soto scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 55%
- ML SEA +115 / NYY -135
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- NYY: Elo 55.4%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -124
- SEA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.5 – 4.0 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +6 | SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Marcus Stroman: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +37 Elo | NYY 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 9th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 3.21st of 30 |
| 14th of 300.0 | Margin | +1.63rd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 21st of 3010–12 | Road vs home | 16–61st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–25 | 27–21 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 12–15 | 15–16 |
| Underdog | 10–10 | 12–5 |
| Overs–unders | 17–28–2 | 20–27–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 2–4 NYY in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.