Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Dylan MooreBatting3-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Yankees- Gleyber TorresBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Clarke SchmidtPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Moore homered to right center (368 feet).6–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 35–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul5–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 25–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 8Raley homered to right (357 feet).5–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–3
- 7Torres homered to left center (392 feet), Judge scored and Rizzo scored.4–3
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 34–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 24–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 14–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 7Moore singled to center, Garver scored.4–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 7France homered to left center (402 feet).3–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3Moore homered to left (386 feet), Rojas scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 60%
- ML SEA +140 / NYY -165
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- NYY: Elo 55.0%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- NYY -149
- SEA +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.8 – 4.7 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +12 | SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYY: Clarke Schmidt: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +35 Elo | NYY 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 57.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.86th of 30 |
| 8th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 3.21st of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | +1.63rd of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 18th of 3011–12 | Road vs home | 16–75th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–25 | 27–22 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 12–15 | 15–17 |
| Underdog | 11–10 | 12–5 |
| Overs–unders | 18–28–2 | 21–27–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 3–4 NYY in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.