San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Luis ArraezBatting4-5, 1 RBI
- Matt WaldronPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Reds- Nick MartiniBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Frankie MontasPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Cronenworth hit sacrifice fly to center, Arraez scored.6–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 15–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 10Tatis Jr. doubled to left, Campusano scored, Arraez to third.5–4
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–4
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking4–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 24–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 6Martini homered to right center (396 feet), Steer scored.4–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 2Hurtubise singled to right, Martini scored, Maile to second, India to third.4–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 2Arraez singled to right, Merrill scored, Higashioka to second.4–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 2Higashioka grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, D. Peralta scored, Kim out at second, Merrill to third.3–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 1Candelario tripled to right, Hurtubise scored.2–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 1Machado doubled to right, Profar scored and Tatis Jr. scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 50%
- ML SD -110 / CIN -110
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- CIN: Elo 46.5%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- CIN -100
- SD -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.8 – 4.8 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −14 | SD: Matt Waldron: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CIN: Frankie Montas: team allows 0.68 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +24 Elo | SD 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.120th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 4th of 3015–10 | Road vs home | 10–1423rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–24 | 25–24 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 13–18 | 10–13 |
| Underdog | 14–6 | 15–11 |
| Overs–unders | 28–23–1 | 24–24–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 6–5 CIN in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.