Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Johnathan RodriguezBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Ben LivelyPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Angels- Matt ThaissBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Reid DetmersPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Pillar singled to left, Rengifo scored, Ward to second.5–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 8Rengifo singled to left, Schanuel scored.5–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–3
- 6Ramírez walked, Rocchio scored, Giménez to second, Freeman to third.5–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 45–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 34–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 24–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 6Giménez singled to center, Hedges scored, Freeman to second, Rocchio to third.4–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 6Freeman hit by pitch, Rodríguez scored, Rocchio to second, Hedges to third.3–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 5Thaiss homered to right center (446 feet), Neto scored.2–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 32–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 3Rodríguez doubled to left, Giménez scored and Ramírez scored, Fry to third.2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 50%
- ML CLE -110 / LAA -110
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.5 pts
- LAA: Elo 43.5%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- LAA -100
- CLE -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.3 – 4.3 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −7 | CLE: Ben Lively: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +45 Elo | CLE 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 5.027th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.4 | Margin | −0.723rd of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 5th of 3017–11 | Road vs home | 6–1830th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–19 | 29–23 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 15–14 | 0–12 |
| Underdog | 18–5 | 29–11 |
| Overs–unders | 25–25–2 | 29–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 7–5 LAA in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 12.