Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Angels- Taylor WardBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 3Ward homered to left (386 feet), Paris scored and Rengifo scored.4–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 3Ramírez homered to right (365 feet), Freeman scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 32–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 24–0
- 3Rocchio scored on Soriano wild pitch, Freeman to second on wild pitch by Soriano.2–0
- 3Rocchio scored on Soriano wild pitch, Freeman to second on wild pitch by Soriano.2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Freeman singled to center, Florial scored, Rocchio to third.1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 58%
- ML CLE -150 / LAA +130
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- CLE: Elo 57.7%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- CLE -138
- LAA +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.1 – 3.4 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | −2 | CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.79 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +54 Elo | CLE 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 55.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 5.027th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.4 | Margin | −0.723rd of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 6th of 3016–11 | Road vs home | 6–1730th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–18 | 28–23 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 15–13 | 0–12 |
| Underdog | 18–5 | 28–11 |
| Overs–unders | 25–24–2 | 29–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 6–5 LAA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.