New York Yankees at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Alex VerdugoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Clarke SchmidtPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Padres- Luis ArraezBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Joe MusgrovePitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Verdugo homered to left (351 feet).2–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–5
- 7Machado doubled to left, Cronenworth scored.1–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 21–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 6Tatis Jr. reached on infield single to pitcher, Kim scored, Arraez to second.1–4
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging1–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 31–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 6Arraez singled to center, Merrill scored, Kim to third.1–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking1–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 31–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 6Kim reached on bunt single to first, Machado scored on error, Merrill to second.1–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul1–1
- 6Merrill grounded into fielder's choice to first, Cronenworth scored, Solano out at second, Machado to third.1–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 6Soto doubled to center, Volpe scored.1–0
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–0
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 30–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 54%
- ML NYY -130 / SD +110
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- NYY: Elo 51.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -119
- SD +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 3.9 – 3.6 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +2 | NYY: Clarke Schmidt: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Joe Musgrove: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +11 Elo | NYY 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.413th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.1 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.8 | Margin | +0.111th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 1st of 3019–9 | Road vs home | 10–1727th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–23 | 29–26 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 18–18 | 13–19 |
| Underdog | 13–5 | 15–7 |
| Overs–unders | 24–29–1 | 30–24–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 4–1 SD in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.