New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Alex VerdugoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis GilPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Angels- Logan O'HoppeBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7O'Hoppe homered to right center (382 feet).2–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 7Volpe tripled to right, Volpe scored on throwing error by second baseman Rengifo.2–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 4Verdugo homered to right (394 feet).1–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 66%
- ML NYY -215 / LAA +180
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.0 pts
- NYY: Elo 57.6%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- NYY -191
- LAA +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 5.0 – 3.5 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +9 | NYY: Luis Gil: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +53 Elo | NYY 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 64.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 63.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.314th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.2 | Runs allowed | 5.027th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.6 | Margin | −0.624th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3019–11 | Road vs home | 7–1930th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–25 | 30–24 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 18–20 | 0–13 |
| Underdog | 13–5 | 30–11 |
| Overs–unders | 24–31–1 | 30–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 2–5 LAA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.