San Diego Padres at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Luis ArraezBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Michael KingPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Royals- Nelson VelazquezBatting1-1, 2 RBI
- Cole RagansPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Loftin hit sacrifice fly to right, Velázquez scored.3–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 23–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 9Velázquez tripled to center, Pasquantino scored and Blanco scored.3–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 8Machado singled to right, Tatis Jr. scored, Merrill to third.3–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 8Tatis Jr. singled to center, Wade scored.2–1
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball In Play2–1
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 31–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 21–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 11–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 5Arraez singled to right, Azocar scored, Arraez thrown out at second.1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 4Pasquantino hit sacrifice fly to left, Garcia scored.0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 53%
- ML SD +105 / KC -125
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- KC: Elo 48.2%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- KC -114
- SD +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.1 – 4.4 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +1 | SD: Michael King: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · KC: Cole Ragans: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +12 Elo | SD 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.74th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +1.26th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3018–10 | Road vs home | 21–104th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–28 | 38–22 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 15–21 | 14–11 |
| Underdog | 17–7 | 24–11 |
| Overs–unders | 33–27–1 | 26–33–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 3–2 KC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.