Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Daniel Lynch IVPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Twins- Ryan JeffersBatting2-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Chris PaddackPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Witt Jr. singled to left, Frazier scored and Garcia scored.6–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–7
- 6Correa tripled to right, Kepler scored, Santana scored and Margot scored.4–7
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 34–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 24–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 6Kepler singled to left, Castro scored.4–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 24–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 5Jeffers homered to center (406 feet).4–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 4Jeffers homered to left center (408 feet), Correa scored.4–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 24–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking4–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 4Melendez homered to right (416 feet).4–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Witt Jr. doubled to center, Garcia scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pasquantino homered to right center (417 feet), Garcia scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 59%
- ML KC +135 / MIN -160
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- MIN: Elo 55.9%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -145
- KC +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.8 – 4.7 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +2 | KC: Daniel Lynch IV: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · MIN: Chris Paddack: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +41 Elo | MIN 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.412th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.4 | Margin | 0.011th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 11th of 3014–14 | Road vs home | 15–1312th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–20 | 26–29 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 14–10 | 14–21 |
| Underdog | 23–10 | 12–8 |
| Overs–unders | 23–33–1 | 24–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 6–13 MIN in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 19.