Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Ezequiel DuranBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Twins- Alex KirilloffBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Chris PaddackPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Kirilloff homered to left center (395 feet), Kepler scored and Buxton scored.3–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 7Correa hit sacrifice fly to center, Kirilloff scored.3–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 6Taveras doubled to center, Smith scored.3–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking2–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 32–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 5Duran homered to left (393 feet).2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 4García hit a ground rule double, Seager scored.1–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Jeffers walked, Correa scored, Buxton to second, Miranda to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball 40–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 57%
- ML TEX +125 / MIN -145
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- MIN: Elo 53.8%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -133
- TEX +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.9 – 4.6 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | 0 | TEX: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Chris Paddack: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +26 Elo | MIN 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 56.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.111th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 20th of 3012–15 | Road vs home | 12–1112th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–32 | 24–26 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 9–22 | 13–18 |
| Underdog | 11–10 | 11–8 |
| Overs–unders | 21–30–1 | 23–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 2–6 MIN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.