Minnesota Twins at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Carlos CorreaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching5.0 IP, 7 ER, 5 K
Nationals- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Mitchell ParkerPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rosario singled to right, Gallo scored and Abrams scored.3–12
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–12
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 33–12
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 23–12
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–12
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–12
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–12
- 6Young scored on throwing error by catcher Vázquez and Rosario stole home.3–10
- 6Young scored on throwing error by catcher Vázquez and Rosario stole home.3–10
- 6Rosario singled to right, Ruiz scored, Young to third.3–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–8
- 6Correa homered to left center (428 feet), Jeffers scored.3–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–7
- 5L. García Jr. singled to center, Winker scored, Meneses to second.1–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–7
- 5Meneses singled to center, Young scored, Winker to second.1–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–6
- 5Young singled to center, Gallo scored and Ruiz scored.1–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 4Winker homered to center (403 feet).1–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 31–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 21–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 11–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 2L. García Jr. homered to right (378 feet), Meneses scored.1–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 2Farmer reached on infield single to shortstop, Castro scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 59%
- ML MIN -155 / WSH +135
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- MIN: Elo 54.3%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- MIN -143
- WSH +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.1 – 3.4 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +3 | MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Mitchell Parker: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +30 Elo | MIN 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 62.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 61.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.923rd of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.420th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 10th of 3013–11 | Road vs home | 7–1025th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–23 | 27–18 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–15 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 11–8 | 24–17 |
| Overs–unders | 21–25 | 19–25–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 1–2 WSH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.