Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Phillies- Kody ClemensBatting2-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 10Harper hit sacrifice fly to center, Rojas scored.3–4
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 9Clemens homered to center (413 feet).3–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 9Winker singled to center, Nuñez scored, Rosario to third.3–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 7Stott homered to right center (370 feet).2–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 32–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 5Abrams singled to right, Young scored, Abrams out stretching at second.2–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 4Stott grounded into double play, second to first, Harper scored, Bohm out at second.1–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Meneses singled to left, Abrams scored, Vargas to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 62%
- ML WSH +150 / PHI -180
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- PHI: Elo 62.4%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- PHI -161
- WSH +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.2 – 4.3 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −12 | WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.62 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +88 Elo | PHI 62.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 61.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 61.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 303.9 | Runs scored | 5.21st of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.76th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +1.62nd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 14th of 3013–13 | Road vs home | 17–84th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–17 | 25–21 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 19–18 |
| Underdog | 23–16 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 18–24–1 | 23–22–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 7–10 PHI in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 17.