Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Eddie RosarioBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Phillies- Alec BohmBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching7.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 5Rosario doubled to right, Abrams scored.2–4
- 5Pitch 9 : Ball In Play2–4
- 5Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 5Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 31–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 21–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 11–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 3Marsh doubled to right, Stott scored, Castellanos to third.1–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 2Schwarber grounded out to first, Sosa scored.1–3
- 2Pitch 9 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 2Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging1–2
- 2Marsh scored on Irvin wild pitch, Sosa to third on wild pitch by Irvin.1–2
- 2Marsh scored on Irvin wild pitch, Sosa to third on wild pitch by Irvin.1–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 31–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Ruiz doubled to left, Vargas scored.1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Bohm doubled to right, Realmuto scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 69%
- ML WSH +210 / PHI -250
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- PHI: Elo 63.9%, market 68.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -221
- WSH +221 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.9 – 4.6 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −1 | WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +99 Elo | PHI 63.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 71.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 70.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 68.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.31st of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.78th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +1.62nd of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 14th of 3013–12 | Road vs home | 16–83rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–16 | 24–21 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 18–18 |
| Underdog | 23–15 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 18–23–1 | 23–21–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 7–9 PHI in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 16.