Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Eddie RosarioBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Trevor WilliamsPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Phillies- Alec BohmBatting1-3, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Young doubled to right, Gallo scored, Ruiz to third.5–11
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–11
- 9Ruiz singled to right, Senzel scored, Gallo to second.4–11
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–11
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–11
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–11
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 14–11
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–11
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–11
- 8Bohm homered to left (403 feet), Rojas scored and Schwarber scored.3–11
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–11
- 6Harper doubled to center, Rojas scored and Schwarber scored.3–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–8
- 5Castellanos singled to left, Clemens scored.3–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–6
- 5Clemens doubled to right, Harper scored and Stott scored.3–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 5Bohm hit sacrifice fly to right, Schwarber scored, Stott to third.3–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 5Winker homered to right center (406 feet).3–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 4Rosario homered to right (352 feet), Vargas scored.2–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 3Bohm hit sacrifice fly to right, Stott scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 2Castellanos singled to center, Clemens scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 68%
- ML WSH +200 / PHI -240
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- PHI: Elo 63.5%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -212
- WSH +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.9 – 4.6 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +8 | WSH: Trevor Williams: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +96 Elo | PHI 63.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 70.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 69.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 303.9 | Runs scored | 5.21st of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.66th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +1.63rd of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 15th of 3013–14 | Road vs home | 18–84th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–17 | 25–22 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 19–19 |
| Underdog | 24–16 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 18–25–1 | 23–23–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 7–11 PHI in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 18.