Minnesota Twins at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Max KeplerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Simeon Woods RichardsonPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Nationals- Joey MenesesBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Meneses homered to left (393 feet).3–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 23–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 9Jeffers singled to left, Kepler scored.3–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 7Ruiz grounded out to first, L. García Jr. scored, Vargas to third.2–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 6Correa homered to left (399 feet).2–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Kepler homered to right center (409 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 53%
- ML MIN -125 / WSH +105
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- MIN: Elo 53.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -114
- WSH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.9 – 4.6 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −2 | MIN: Simeon Woods Richardson: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +26 Elo | MIN 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.021st of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.420th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 9th of 3014–12 | Road vs home | 8–1125th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–24 | 28–19 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–16 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 11–8 | 25–18 |
| Overs–unders | 23–25 | 21–25–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 2–3 WSH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.