Minnesota Twins at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting2-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Nationals- Jacob YoungBatting2-3
- Patrick CorbinPitching6.0 IP, 8 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Castro homered to right center (380 feet), Kepler scored.10–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play10–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 18–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging8–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–0
- 6Santana scored on Corbin wild pitch.8–0
- 6Santana scored on Corbin wild pitch.8–0
- 6Santana doubled to left, Farmer scored.7–0
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging6–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 36–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 26–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 17–0
- 5Buxton homered to center (424 feet), Correa scored.6–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 3Miranda homered to left (411 feet), Margot scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Santana grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Castro scored, Farmer out at second.2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Buxton homered to right center (388 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 61%
- ML MIN -175 / WSH +150
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.5 pts
- MIN: Elo 52.9%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- MIN -159
- WSH +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.8 – 3.7 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −3 | MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +20 Elo | MIN 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 62.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 60.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.121st of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 11th of 3013–12 | Road vs home | 8–1020th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–24 | 28–18 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–16 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 11–8 | 25–17 |
| Overs–unders | 22–25 | 20–25–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 1–3 WSH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.