Texas Rangers at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jon GrayPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Stott hit sacrifice fly to left, Realmuto scored, Bohm to third.2–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–4
- 8Bohm doubled to left, Schwarber scored, Realmuto to third.2–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 8Seager homered to right center (379 feet).2–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Harper homered to center (422 feet).1–3
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 31–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 4Bohm singled to right, Harper scored.1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3Schwarber singled to right, Marsh scored.1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Semien doubled to left, Hill scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 61%
- ML TEX +150 / PHI -175
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- PHI: Elo 56.6%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- PHI -159
- TEX +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.7 – 4.8 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1559 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +24 | +14 | TEX: Jon Gray: team allows 1.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.72 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +46 Elo | PHI 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.31st of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.75th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.72nd of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 11th of 3012–11 | Road vs home | 19–82nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–29 | 26–22 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 9–22 | 20–19 |
| Underdog | 10–7 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 20–27–1 | 24–23–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 3–0 PHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.