Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose UrenaPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Twins- Alex KirilloffBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 4Kirilloff homered to right (400 feet).2–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 2Julien grounded out to second, Castro scored, Vázquez to third.2–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Vázquez hit a ground rule double, Miranda scored, Castro to third.2–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Seager homered to center (417 feet), Semien scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 60%
- ML TEX +140 / MIN -165
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.8 pts
- MIN: Elo 52.1%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- MIN -149
- TEX +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.8 – 4.7 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −14 | TEX: Jose Urena: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.71 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +15 Elo | MIN 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 57.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.112th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 19th of 3012–14 | Road vs home | 11–1112th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–32 | 24–25 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 9–22 | 13–17 |
| Underdog | 10–10 | 11–8 |
| Overs–unders | 21–29–1 | 23–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 2–5 MIN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.