Texas Rangers at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dane DunningPitching3.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Phillies- J.T. RealmutoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Taijuan WalkerPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Harper homered to right (393 feet).4–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–10
- 7Seager homered to left center (401 feet).4–10
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–10
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–10
- 6Bohm doubled to center, Schwarber scored and Realmuto scored, Harper to third.3–10
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–10
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 23–8
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–8
- 6Realmuto singled to left, Castellanos scored and Rojas scored, Schwarber to second.3–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–6
- 5Smith singled to center, Semien scored, García to third.3–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–6
- 4Sosa homered to right center (382 feet), Castellanos scored and Marsh scored.2–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–6
- 3Realmuto homered to left (387 feet).2–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 2Castellanos scored, Marsh to second on caught stealing error by pitcher Dunning.2–2
- 2Castellanos scored, Marsh to second on caught stealing error by pitcher Dunning.2–2
- 2Marsh singled to right, Bohm scored, Castellanos to third.2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Taveras homered to center (437 feet).2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Smith singled to right, Semien scored, Seager to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 53%
- ML TEX +105 / PHI -125
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- PHI: Elo 55.3%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -114
- TEX +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.6 – 4.9 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1561 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −12 | TEX: Dane Dunning: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 0.62 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +37 Elo | PHI 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.31st of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.65th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.71st of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 11th of 3012–12 | Road vs home | 20–83rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–30 | 27–22 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 9–22 | 21–19 |
| Underdog | 10–8 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 20–28–1 | 24–24–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 3–1 PHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.