Texas Rangers at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Adolis GarciaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching3.1 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Phillies- Nick CastellanosBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Castellanos homered to left center (377 feet).2–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–5
- 7Duran reached on infield single to second, Lowe scored, Taveras to second.2–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4Schwarber singled to center, Pache scored.1–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Pache tripled to center, Sosa scored and Merrifield scored.1–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 3Realmuto homered to right (372 feet).1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2García homered to left center (406 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 64%
- ML TEX +170 / PHI -205
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- PHI: Elo 61.3%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- PHI -181
- TEX +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.6 – 4.9 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1564 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +1 | TEX: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.67 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +80 Elo | PHI 61.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 65.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 64.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.41st of 30 |
| 19th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.65th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +1.81st of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 16th of 3012–13 | Road vs home | 21–82nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–31 | 28–22 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 9–22 | 22–19 |
| Underdog | 10–9 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 21–28–1 | 25–24–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 3–2 PHI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.