Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Garrett HampsonBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Cole RagansPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Twins- Manuel MargotBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Simeon Woods RichardsonPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Julien singled to right, Buxton scored.2–4
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 32–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 5Isbel grounded out to shortstop, Renfroe scored, Hampson to second.2–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 5Hampson singled to right, Loftin scored, Renfroe to third.1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Margot doubled to center, Vázquez scored.0–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 1Miranda singled to center, Margot scored and Correa scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- KC 55%
- ML KC -135 / MIN +115
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.8 pts
- KC: Elo 44.4%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- KC -124
- MIN +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.0 – 3.5 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +3 | KC: Cole Ragans: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIN: Simeon Woods Richardson: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +39 Elo | MIN 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.4 | Margin | +0.111th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 11th of 3013–13 | Road vs home | 14–1212th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–19 | 25–28 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 14–9 | 14–20 |
| Underdog | 22–10 | 11–8 |
| Overs–unders | 23–31–1 | 24–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 5–12 MIN in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 17.