Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Maikel GarciaBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Alec MarshPitching7.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Twins- Trevor LarnachBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Garcia reached on infield single to third, Melendez scored on throwing error by third baseman Castro and Renfroe scored, Garcia to second, Blanco safe at third on error.5–6
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–6
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging3–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 33–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 23–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 9Blanco reached on infield single to third, Frazier scored, Melendez to second, Renfroe to third.3–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 9Renfroe doubled to left, Perez scored, Frazier to third.2–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 8Kirilloff singled to left, Kepler scored, Jeffers to second.1–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–6
- 6Pasquantino singled to right, Garcia scored, Witt Jr. to third.1–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 5Larnach homered to right center (441 feet), Castro scored and Julien scored.0–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 3Miranda homered to center (437 feet), Julien scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 61%
- ML KC +145 / MIN -170
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- MIN: Elo 56.4%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- MIN -154
- KC +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.3 – 4.2 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +6 | KC: Alec Marsh: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +45 Elo | MIN 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 58.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.413th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.5 | Margin | +0.111th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 11th of 3013–12 | Road vs home | 13–1212th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–19 | 25–27 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 14–9 | 14–19 |
| Underdog | 21–10 | 11–8 |
| Overs–unders | 22–31–1 | 23–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 5–11 MIN in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 16.