Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Matt VierlingBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Tyler HoltonPitching3.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting3-4, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Alec MarshPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Renfroe homered to left center (399 feet).3–10
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–10
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 13–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–9
- 6Witt Jr. homered to center (425 feet).3–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–9
- 4Keith singled to center, Vierling scored.3–8
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–8
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 22–8
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–8
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–8
- 4Vierling tripled to center, Canha scored and Pérez scored.2–8
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–8
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–8
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–8
- 3Witt Jr. hit sacrifice fly to right, Garcia scored.0–8
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–8
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–7
- 3Garcia tripled to center, Renfroe scored.0–7
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–7
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–6
- 2Massey hit sacrifice fly to right, Pasquantino scored.0–6
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–6
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 10–5
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–5
- 2Witt Jr. homered to center (468 feet), Isbel scored and Garcia scored.0–5
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–5
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 1Perez singled to right, Witt Jr. scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 1Witt Jr. reached on infield single to pitcher, Garcia scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 51%
- ML DET -105 / KC -115
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- KC: Elo 51.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- KC -104
- DET +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.2 – 4.3 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −5 | DET: Casey Mize: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · KC: Alec Marsh: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +8 Elo | KC 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 10th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 3.43rd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +1.25th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 10th of 3013–11 | Road vs home | 19–83rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–26 | 31–18 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–18 | 12–9 |
| Underdog | 15–8 | 19–9 |
| Overs–unders | 25–22 | 18–30–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 12–5 KC in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 17.