Detroit Tigers at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Wenceel PerezBatting2-4, 4 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Gurriel Jr. singled to right, Grichuk scored.8–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–3
- 8Pérez hit sacrifice fly to left, Báez scored, Kelly to third.8–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–2
- 8Kelly doubled to left, Torkelson scored, Báez to third.7–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 16–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 7Urshela reached on infield single to shortstop, Pérez scored, Vierling to second.6–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 7Pérez tripled to left, Kelly scored, Greene scored and Canha scored.5–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 7Kelly singled to right, Báez scored.2–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 7Báez doubled to left, Urshela scored.1–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 6Pederson singled to center, Marte scored.0–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 6Marte tripled to left, Carroll scored.0–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 56%
- ML DET +120 / ARI -140
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- ARI: Elo 57.0%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- ARI -128
- DET +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.5 – 4.0 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | +10 | DET: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.80 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +49 Elo | ARI 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.87th of 30 |
| 9th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.722nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.3 | Margin | 0.016th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 8th of 3012–9 | Road vs home | 11–1216th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–24 | 21–24 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–18 | 8–12 |
| Underdog | 14–6 | 13–12 |
| Overs–unders | 23–21 | 20–24–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 1–3 ARI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.