Detroit Tigers at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Javier BaezBatting3-4, 5 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting1-4
- Ryne NelsonPitching4.0 IP, 8 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Báez doubled to right, Keith scored and Torkelson scored.13–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play13–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking11–0
- 5Carpenter doubled to center, Pérez scored and Greene scored.11–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play11–0
- 5Greene singled to right, Báez scored.9–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–0
- 5Báez doubled to center, Torkelson scored and Keith scored.8–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 26–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging6–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 5Keith singled to left, Vierling scored.6–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 4Pérez doubled to right, Canha scored, Pérez to third.5–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 24–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 3Keith singled to right, Carpenter scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Carpenter tripled to right, Canha scored and Pérez scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Báez singled to right, Keith scored, Torkelson to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 55%
- ML DET -135 / ARI +115
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.7 pts
- DET: Elo 48.6%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -124
- ARI +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.0 – 3.5 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | −6 | DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.77 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +10 Elo | ARI 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 10th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.520th of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.310th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 9th of 3011–9 | Road vs home | 11–1113th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–24 | 21–23 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–18 | 8–12 |
| Underdog | 14–6 | 13–11 |
| Overs–unders | 22–21 | 19–24–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 0–3 ARI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.