Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Kerry CarpenterBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Reese OlsonPitching2.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Royals- Michael MasseyBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Carpenter hit sacrifice fly to center, Greene scored, Canha to third.3–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–8
- 7Keith doubled to right, Carpenter scored.2–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 22–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–8
- 6Pasquantino hit sacrifice fly to left, Isbel scored, Garcia to third.1–8
- 6Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–8
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball 31–8
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 21–8
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–8
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 11–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–8
- 6Garcia singled to right, Renfroe scored, Isbel to third.1–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–7
- 6Renfroe doubled to left, Fermin scored and Melendez scored, Renfroe to third.1–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–6
- 6Fermin singled to left, Massey scored.1–4
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging1–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 6Perez homered to left center (436 feet).1–3
- 6Pitch 10 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 6Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging1–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 31–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- KC 58%
- ML DET +130 / KC -155
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.6 pts
- KC: Elo 49.7%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- KC -140
- DET +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 25.1 – 25.9 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 51
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −8 | DET: Reese Olson: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +2 Elo | DET 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.69th of 30 |
| 10th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 3.53rd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +1.16th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 8th of 3013–10 | Road vs home | 18–84th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–25 | 30–18 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–18 | 11–9 |
| Underdog | 15–7 | 19–9 |
| Overs–unders | 25–21 | 18–29–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 12–4 KC in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 16.