Detroit Tigers at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Matt ManningPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Diamondbacks- Joc PedersonBatting3-3, 2 RBI
- Jordan MontgomeryPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Alexander grounded out to first, Walker scored, McCarthy to second.4–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–6
- 7Smith grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Grichuk scored, Walker third.4–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 7Carpenter tripled to right, Torkelson scored, Carpenter out stretching at home.4–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Automatic Ball - Pitch Timer Violation 14–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 6Vierling doubled to left, Ibáñez scored.3–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–4
- 5Báez singled to left, Pérez scored.2–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 4Walker hit sacrifice fly to center, Marte scored, Pederson to second.1–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–4
- 3Torkelson homered to center (428 feet).1–3
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 31–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 21–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 2Pederson singled to right, Barnhart scored, Marte to third.0–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 1Walker hit sacrifice fly to center, Marte scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 55%
- ML DET +115 / ARI -135
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- ARI: Elo 53.7%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- ARI -124
- DET +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.0 – 4.5 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +2 | DET: Matt Manning: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ARI: Jordan Montgomery: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +26 Elo | ARI 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.77th of 30 |
| 9th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 7th of 3013–9 | Road vs home | 11–1318th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–24 | 21–25 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–18 | 8–13 |
| Underdog | 15–6 | 13–12 |
| Overs–unders | 24–21 | 21–24–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 2–3 ARI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.