Oakland Athletics at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- JP SearsPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Royals- Maikel GarciaBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rooker homered to left (431 feet), Schuemann scored and Bleday scored.4–8
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–8
- 6Garcia grounded out to third, Isbel scored.1–8
- 6Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–8
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–8
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 31–8
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–8
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–8
- 6Pasquantino tripled to right, Fermin scored, Renfroe scored and Massey scored.1–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 11–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–7
- 5Witt Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Garcia scored.1–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 5Garcia doubled to center, Massey scored.1–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 4Soderstrom doubled to center, Rooker scored.1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Perez singled to center, Witt Jr. scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Witt Jr. doubled to left, Garcia scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- KC 61%
- ML OAK +150 / KC -175
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- KC: Elo 59.0%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- KC -159
- OAK +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.2 – 5.3 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1431 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −2 | OAK: JP Sears: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Brady Singer: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +63 Elo | KC 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 61.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 61.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.511th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.42nd of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.2 | Margin | +1.17th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 25th of 309–16 | Road vs home | 17–85th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–24 | 29–18 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 10–9 |
| Underdog | 21–21 | 19–9 |
| Overs–unders | 24–24 | 17–29–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 4–4 KC in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.