Oakland Athletics at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Shea LangeliersBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Mitch SpencePitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Royals- Michael MasseyBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cole RagansPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Langeliers homered to center (421 feet), Toro scored.2–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 12–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 6Garcia homered to left center (398 feet), Melendez scored and Isbel scored.0–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 20–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 6Massey homered to right (368 feet), Perez scored.0–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 1Perez reached on infield single to third, Witt Jr. scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- KC 64%
- ML OAK +170 / KC -200
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- KC: Elo 59.1%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- KC -180
- OAK +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 3.6 – 4.9 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1435 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −2 | OAK: Mitch Spence (no track record yet) · KC: Cole Ragans: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +64 Elo | KC 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 62.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 61.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 26th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.52nd of 30 |
| 25th of 30−1.1 | Margin | +1.07th of 30 |
| 30th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 25th of 309–14 | Road vs home | 15–85th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–22 | 27–18 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 8–9 |
| Underdog | 21–19 | 19–9 |
| Overs–unders | 24–22 | 17–27–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 4–2 KC in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.