Oakland Athletics at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Seth BrownBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ross StriplingPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Royals- Kyle IsbelBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 7Isbel homered to center (412 feet).3–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–5
- 7Rooker singled to left, Toro scored, Bleday to second.3–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 6Velázquez singled to center, Massey scored.2–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 5Pasquantino singled to right, Garcia scored.2–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 2Brown homered to center (445 feet), Gelof scored.2–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Perez singled to left, Garcia scored and Witt Jr. scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- KC 64%
- ML OAK +165 / KC -195
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- KC: Elo 63.6%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- KC -175
- OAK +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.1 – 5.4 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1433 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +15 | OAK: Ross Stripling: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.75 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +97 Elo | KC 63.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 60.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 61.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 26th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.52nd of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.1 | Margin | +1.17th of 30 |
| 30th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 25th of 309–15 | Road vs home | 16–85th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–23 | 28–18 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 9–9 |
| Underdog | 21–20 | 19–9 |
| Overs–unders | 24–23 | 17–28–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 4–3 KC in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.