Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting2-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Gerson GarabitoPitching3.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Twins- Carlos CorreaBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 5Correa doubled to center, Castro scored on error, Correa safe at third on throwing error by second baseman Semien.6–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 26–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 5Lowe singled to left, Smith scored.6–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 35–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 25–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking5–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 5Seager homered to right (373 feet).5–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–1
- 4Kepler doubled to right, Correa scored.4–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 34–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 24–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 14–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 4Heim grounded into fielder's choice to second, Taveras scored, Lowe out at second.4–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 4Lowe singled to right, García scored, Taveras to third.3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 3Seager homered to right center (404 feet), Semien scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 59%
- ML TEX +135 / MIN -160
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- MIN: Elo 52.2%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -145
- TEX +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.8 – 4.7 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −3 | TEX: Gerson Garabito (no track record yet) · MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +15 Elo | MIN 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 57.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.511th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.210th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3012–16 | Road vs home | 13–1112th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–33 | 25–26 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 9–22 | 14–18 |
| Underdog | 11–11 | 11–8 |
| Overs–unders | 21–31–1 | 23–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 2–7 MIN in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.