Kansas City Royals at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Michael MasseyBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting1-4
- Tyler AlexanderPitching5.0 IP, 8 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Fermin doubled to center, Pasquantino scored.8–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 17–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–1
- 7Witt Jr. homered to center (433 feet).7–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 16–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 6Hampson singled to center, Renfroe scored.6–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 15–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–1
- 5Massey homered to right center (390 feet), Garcia scored and Perez scored.5–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–1
- 4Renfroe grounded into fielder's choice to third, Massey scored, Velázquez out at second, Fermin to third.2–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 4Velázquez walked, Pasquantino scored, Fermin to second, Massey to third.1–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 41–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 30–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Aranda grounded into fielder's choice to second, B. Lowe scored, Paredes out at second, DeLuca to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 52%
- ML KC -120 / TB +100
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- KC: Elo 47.3%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- KC -109
- TB +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.3 – 4.2 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +3 | KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.72 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Shawn Armstrong: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +19 Elo | TB 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.022nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 4.825th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.4 | Margin | −0.825th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 11th of 3011–11 | Road vs home | 14–1514th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–18 | 22–29 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 13–9 | 11–22 |
| Underdog | 20–9 | 11–7 |
| Overs–unders | 20–30–1 | 26–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 3–4 TB in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.