Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Jonny DeLucaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zach EflinPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting3-4, 1 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8DeLuca homered to left (358 feet), Palacios scored.5–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–4
- 6Caballero singled to center, DeLuca scored, Rosario to third.3–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 6Rosario singled to left, Díaz scored and H. Ramírez scored, DeLuca to second.2–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 5Guerrero Jr. singled to right, Varsho scored, Guerrero Jr. out stretching at second.0–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 5Varsho doubled to center, Kiermaier scored and Schneider scored.0–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Springer singled to left, Guerrero Jr. scored.0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 56%
- ML TB +120 / TOR -140
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.7 pts
- TOR: Elo 48.5%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -128
- TB +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.5 – 4.0 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −7 | TB: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +10 Elo | TB 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.629th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.6 | Margin | −1.126th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 13th of 3010–10 | Road vs home | 9–1017th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–25 | 20–23 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–19 | 11–12 |
| Underdog | 10–6 | 9–11 |
| Overs–unders | 24–22 | 17–25–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 10–8 TOR in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 18.