Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Red Sox- Wilyer AbreuBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tanner HouckPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Devers homered to center (408 feet).4–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 6Díaz singled to left, Caballero scored and Siri scored.4–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 6Siri singled to left, Palacios scored, Caballero to second.2–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Abreu homered to right (406 feet).1–2
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 21–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 11–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 4Aranda scored on error, Palacios safe at first on fielding error by first baseman Cooper, Palacios safe at second on error, Paredes safe at third on error.1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 1Wong hit sacrifice fly to center, Duran scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 54%
- ML TB +110 / BOS -130
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- BOS: Elo 51.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -119
- TB +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.1 – 4.4 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −5 | TB: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BOS: Tanner Houck: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +7 Elo | BOS 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.315th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.54th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.89th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 25th of 307–10 | Road vs home | 10–1116th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–25 | 19–23 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 11–19 | 5–15 |
| Underdog | 7–6 | 14–8 |
| Overs–unders | 23–20 | 14–26–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 12–3 BOS in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 15.