Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Amed RosarioBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Zach EflinPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Red Sox- Tyler O'NeillBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kutter CrawfordPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rosario doubled to left, J. Lowe scored, Shenton to third.5–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 4Siri hit sacrifice fly to left, Caballero scored.4–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 1O'Neill homered to left (426 feet), Abreu scored and Devers scored.3–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 1Palacios singled to center, Rosario scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Rosario tripled to right, Díaz scored and H. Ramírez scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 52%
- ML TB +100 / BOS -120
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- BOS: Elo 49.9%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -109
- TB +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.2 – 4.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −9 | TB: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Kutter Crawford: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +1 Elo | TB 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.52nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.8 | Margin | +0.89th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 25th of 306–9 | Road vs home | 9–1017th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–25 | 19–21 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 11–19 | 5–13 |
| Underdog | 5–6 | 14–8 |
| Overs–unders | 23–18 | 14–24–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 11–2 BOS in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 13.