Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Richie PalaciosBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler AlexanderPitching7.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Blue Jays- Davis SchneiderBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Biggio singled to center, Varsho scored, Kiermaier to second.4–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 8Schneider homered to left center (394 feet), Jansen scored.4–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 7Díaz singled to center, Rortvedt scored, DeLuca to third.4–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 6Palacios homered to right (373 feet), Paredes scored.3–0
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 6Aranda grounded out to second, Arozarena scored on throwing error by first baseman Guerrero Jr..1–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 60%
- ML TB +140 / TOR -165
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.4 pts
- TOR: Elo 50.5%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- TOR -149
- TB +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.8 – 4.7 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −8 | TB: Tyler Alexander: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +3 Elo | TOR 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 56.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.628th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.721st of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.6 | Margin | −1.126th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 18th of 309–10 | Road vs home | 9–913th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–25 | 20–22 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–19 | 11–11 |
| Underdog | 9–6 | 9–11 |
| Overs–unders | 24–21 | 17–24–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 9–8 TOR in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 17.