Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Josh LoweBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Red Sox- Jarren DuranBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cooper CriswellPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Palacios hit sacrifice fly to center, Aranda scored.7–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–5
- 9Paredes singled to left, Arozarena scored, Aranda to third.6–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–5
- 6Duran homered to right center (426 feet).5–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 5Cooper doubled to left, Devers scored and Refsnyder scored.5–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 15–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 5Smith grounded out to first, Duran scored, Devers to second, Refsnyder to third.5–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–2
- 4Díaz grounded out to shortstop, Rortvedt scored.5–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–1
- 4Caballero scored on Criswell wild pitch, Siri to second on wild pitch by Criswell, Rortvedt to third on wild pitch by Criswell.4–1
- 4Caballero scored on Criswell wild pitch, Siri to second on wild pitch by Criswell, Rortvedt to third on wild pitch by Criswell.4–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 15–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–1
- 3J. Lowe homered to right (380 feet), Siri scored.3–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 2Devers homered to left (340 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Palacios grounded out to first, Aranda scored, Paredes to second.1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 50%
- ML TB -110 / BOS -110
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- BOS: Elo 51.8%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- BOS -100
- TB -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.8 – 3.8 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +18 | TB: Zack Littell: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BOS: Cooper Criswell: team allows 0.88 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +13 Elo | BOS 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.54th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.79th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 21st of 308–10 | Road vs home | 10–1218th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–25 | 19–24 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 11–19 | 5–16 |
| Underdog | 8–6 | 14–8 |
| Overs–unders | 23–21 | 14–27–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 13–3 BOS in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 16.