Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Reese McGuireBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cooper CriswellPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Rays- Isaac ParedesBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9McGuire homered to right center (391 feet).5–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 8Duran stole home, Devers stole second.4–2
- 8Duran stole home, Devers stole second.4–2
- 8Abreu singled to center, Rafaela scored, Duran to third.3–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 6Duran homered to center (427 feet).2–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 2Grissom singled to center, Devers scored, McGuire to second.1–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Paredes singled to left, J. Lowe scored and Arozarena scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 56%
- ML BOS +120 / TB -140
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- TB: Elo 54.5%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- TB -128
- BOS +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.0 – 4.5 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +8 | BOS: Cooper Criswell: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · TB: Zack Littell: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +32 Elo | TB 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 54.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.021st of 30 |
| 7th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.721st of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.724th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 8th of 3014–11 | Road vs home | 14–1312th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–27 | 22–27 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–18 | 11–20 |
| Underdog | 15–9 | 11–7 |
| Overs–unders | 18–28–2 | 25–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 4–14 TB in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 18.