Boston Red Sox at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Rafael DeversBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kutter CrawfordPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Cardinals- Nolan GormanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Nootbaar singled to right, Gorman scored. Donovan scored on fielding error by right fielder Refsnyder, Nootbaar to third.2–7
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball In Play2–7
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 8Winn hit sacrifice fly to right, Herrera scored.2–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 8Gorman singled to right, Burleson scored, Herrera to third.2–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 8Herrera singled to left, Arenado scored, Burleson to second.2–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 8Refsnyder doubled to center, Duran scored.2–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Nootbaar grounded out to first, Winn scored, Donovan to second, Carlson to third.1–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 4Devers homered to center (431 feet).1–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Gorman homered to right (372 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 52%
- ML BOS -120 / STL +100
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- BOS: Elo 52.1%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -109
- STL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.3 – 4.2 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −12 | BOS: Kutter Crawford: team allows 0.56 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +14 Elo | BOS 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.827th of 30 |
| 9th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.825th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −1.025th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 11th of 3012–10 | Road vs home | 7–1128th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–26 | 20–23 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–17 | 7–13 |
| Underdog | 14–9 | 13–10 |
| Overs–unders | 16–27–2 | 19–22–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 0–4 STL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.