Boston Red Sox at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Rafael DeversBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle GibsonPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Devers grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Refsnyder scored, Wong out at second.6–10
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–10
- 8Arenado singled to center, Nootbaar scored, Goldschmidt to third.5–10
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–10
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 35–9
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 25–10
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 15–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–9
- 7Herrera singled to center, Goldschmidt scored, Burleson to third.5–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–9
- 7Burleson singled to center, Nootbaar scored, Goldschmidt to third.5–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 25–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–7
- 7Wong doubled to right, Hamilton scored.5–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 25–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–7
- 7Duran grounded out to shortstop, Grissom scored, Hamilton to third.4–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–7
- 6Winn homered to left center (402 feet), Herrera scored.3–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 13–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–5
- 5Goldschmidt singled to center, Donovan scored.3–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 23–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 4Burleson homered to right center (390 feet).3–4
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 23–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 50%
- ML BOS -110 / STL -110
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- STL: Elo 48.5%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- STL -100
- BOS -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.3 – 4.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1464 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +5 | BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Kyle Gibson: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +11 Elo | BOS 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.628th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −1.227th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 9th of 3012–9 | Road vs home | 6–1128th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–25 | 19–23 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 5–17 | 6–13 |
| Underdog | 14–8 | 13–10 |
| Overs–unders | 15–27–2 | 18–22–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 0–3 STL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.