Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Isaac ParedesBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Blue Jays- Daniel VogelbachBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Alek ManoahPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Paredes homered to left (351 feet), Aranda scored.2–5
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–5
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 30–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 20–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 10–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–5
- 6Kirk doubled to left, Springer scored and Vogelbach scored.0–5
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 4Springer scored on error, Kiner-Falefa safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Paredes.0–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 4Springer doubled to center, Vogelbach scored.0–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Vogelbach homered to right center (394 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 52%
- ML TB +100 / TOR -120
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- TOR: Elo 48.9%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -109
- TB +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.2 – 4.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −13 | TB: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Alek Manoah: team allows 0.64 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +8 Elo | TB 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.629th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.721st of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.6 | Margin | −1.126th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 12th of 3011–10 | Road vs home | 9–1118th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–25 | 20–24 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–19 | 11–13 |
| Underdog | 11–6 | 9–11 |
| Overs–unders | 25–22 | 18–25–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 11–8 TOR in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 19.